written by Clayton Davis, Variety
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Emmys Commentary (Updated: June 18, 2025): After weeks of handshakes, standing ovations and tiny pastries at For Your Consideration events, the Television Academy has cracked open the gates: nomination voting is underway.
And if we thought this year’s ballot would be predictable, think again.
In a surprising turn, both lead drama acting categories fell short of the 80-submission threshold, triggering a rule that caps the number of nominees at five. Suddenly, the road to a nomination is less a red-carpet stroll and more a gladiator’s pit. Contenders like Pedro Pascal for “The Last of Us,” Sterling K. Brown in “Paradise,” and Lee Jung-jae reprising his Emmy-winning role in “Squid Game” may find themselves unexpectedly vulnerable. Toss in Diego Luna (“Andor”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Day of the Jackal”) and Ramón Rodríguez (“Will Trent”), and you’ve got a murderers’ row of actors vying for a significantly slimmer set of slots.
Over in lead drama actress, things are equally cutthroat. Bella Ramsey (“The Last of Us”) faces stiff competition from genre queen Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”), Melanie Lynskey (“Yellowjackets”) and the ever-rising Nicola Coughlan (“Bridgerton”), whose subtle turn may sneak her into the final five following her SAG nom.
That also cut the slots available in the writing and directing categories as well, so needless to say, talent, publicists and awards strategists will be on edge for the next month.
These narrower races are the result of a continued drop in submissions. In the top three genres — drama, comedy and limited/anthology — there were just 228 shows submitted, down marginally from 229 in 2024 and well below the 309 entries seen before the 2023 strike-depressed season. A total of 600 submissions were received across the 15 program categories, compared to 614 last year.
Then there’s the most confusing twist of all: scripted variety. With only five submissions, the rules dictated a jury process — or so we thought. Variety has learned that the category is proceeding to a full member vote. Voters must now give a “Yes” or “No” to each program’s eligibility. If a show earns 70% approval, it could get a nomination. If no show manages to pass the bar, only the highest-scoring entry will be declared the winner — nominee list be damned. If all shows cross 70%, the top two are named nominees (so congrats, John Oliver and “SNL” again, I guess?).
As for the current nomination leaders, here’s the projected breakdown, based on Variety forecasts across 118 categories:
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (series):
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios):
If correct, “The Studio” would be only one nom short of breaking the freshman nomination record held by “Ted Lasso” Season 1 when it scored 20. The top three networks looking to dominate are Netflix, HBO Max and Apple TV+. In the case of Apple, it’s within earshot of its own record of 72, and if it can pick up some stray noms for some of its docs and other series, it could just happen.
Of course, not all individual category rankings have been updated yet, but they will be completed before the end of the voting window. This will be the penultimate update until the final predictions are released the week before nominations drop on July 15.
Check them out below.
Cinematography (Series, One Hour)
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu) — “Exodus”
Cinematography by Nicola Daley, BSC, ACS
